A simple matrix to predict treatment success and long-term survival among patients undergoing pancreatectomy.

Document Type


Publication Date



Surgery, Oncology

Journal Title

HPB (Oxford)

MeSH Headings

Humans, Pancreatectomy, Treatment Outcome, Pancreatic Neoplasms, Pancreaticoduodenectomy


BACKGROUND: A more accurate measure of long-term survival among patients who have undergone a successful resection for pancreatic adenocarcinoma may be computed by accounting for time already survived during the initial treatment window.

METHODS: Patients diagnosed with pancreatic adenocarcinoma, from 2004 through 2013, were identified from the American College of Surgeons National Cancer Database (NCDB). A risk-stratification matrix was constructed including age, histopathologic factors and the use of adjuvant therapy, given successful treatment and survival at 3-month following diagnosis.

RESULTS: A total of 25,897 patients (50% male, 53% >65 years of age) presented with stage I-III pancreatic cancer. The majority of patients had tumors >2 cm size (82%), grade I/II (65%), lymphatic invasion (LI) (66%), and negative margins (76%). A survival advantage for adjuvant therapy was observed among all patients, independent of their risk-profile. For example, a patient ≤65 years of age, with early stage cancer (size ≤2 cm, grade I/II, -ve LI, -ve margins) who received adjuvant therapy had a 62% probability of being alive beyond three years (95%CI = 59%-66%). In contrast, the survival probability decreased to 53% (95%CI = 59%-66%) without adjuvant therapy.

CONCLUSIONS: These results provide surgeons and patients with more accurate information regarding long-term survival, as well as the benefit of opting for adjuvant therapy after successful pancreatic surgery.



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